for A. A. Carozza Co., Washington, D. C.
Fred W. Tuemmler and Associates
City and Regional Planning Consultants
College Park, Maryland
July 2, 1951
The Hillcrest Heights Shopping Center is proposed to be located on a 9.4 acre tract of land at the northeast corner of Iverson Street and Twenty-third Parkway in Prince George's County, Maryland. The proposed site is about 0.8 miles due southeast of the District of Columbia line and centrally located on the broad commanding plateau of the Hillcrest Heights community at an elevation of approximately 275 feet above sea level. (See Plate A, Page 5).
The site of the proposed shopping center is in the C-1 (local commercial) zone, the property having been placed in this classification on November 15, 1950 by favorable action of the County Commissioners of Prince George's County on Zoning Amendment Petition No. A-1542. The zoning approval carried certain provisions for screen planting along the side bordering residential areas.
As will be observed by reference to Map No. 1, Page 7, the proposed center is favorably situated with respect to major competing centers which now serve the residents of Hillcrest Heights. The nearest one, Naylor Gardens, is 1.1 miles north, just over the District line on Naylor Road at 30th Street. Next, in terms of distance, is the Naylor-Hillcrest Center, an extensive development along Alabama Avenue, Naylor and Good Hope Roads. The Fairfax Center at Pennsylvania and Alabama Avenues is 2.10 miles distant, while Suitland, the only one of the group in Prince George's County, is 2.5 miles away. These, it will be observed, are air line distances. Road mileages to the above centers from Branch Avenue and Colebrook Drive, the present major entrance to Hillcrest Heights, are also indicated on the map.
The minor retail outlets numbered 1 to 5 on the map have few of the components that usually are found in the retail shopping center and with few exceptions are confined chiefly to service businesses. For example, the group of stores at point No. 3 include an appliance store, a real estate office, a tavern, a motor repair shop, an awning and venetian blind shop, an automobile filling station, and a liquor store. At No. 4 are a floor covering shop, barber shop, a tavern, and an automobile sales and service. Nos. 5 and 6 have food stores but no other retail outlets.
Iverson Street, along which the center has its principal frontage of about 900 feet, is a divided highway 100 feet wide, planned as a major connection between the new limited access Maryland State Route 5 (Branch Avenue) and Wheeler Road. Twenty-third Parkway, 120 feet in width, borders the southwesterly side of the proposed shopping center. This road, when extended, will provide a connection between the District of Columbia and Temple Hills Road. Iverson Street and Twenty-third Parkway are the most important streets planned as distributor routes to the interior of Hillcrest Heights and its environs and as connecting links to the other major portions of the highway system. (See Map No. l, Page 7, and Map No. 2, Page 9.)
Accessibility to the Hillcrest Heights Community from downtown Washington is exceptionally good. Driving at reasonable speeds it is possible to travel the 7.3 miles from 14th Street and Constitution Avenue to Branch Avenue and Colebrook Drive (the entrance to Hillcrest Heights) in 15 minutes via South Capitol Street Bridge, Suitland Parkway, and Branch Avenue. Suitland Parkway is a modern, limited access highway and Branch Avenue is now being developed to this standard. Thus, it will soon be possible to travel between the central city and Hillcrest Heights with maximum safety and speed over highways without stop lights and other delaying controls.
The Hillcrest Heights Community is served by the Washington, Marlboro and Annapolis Bus Line which operates between the Washington, D. C. terminal at llth and E Streets, N.W. (opposite the Star Building) and Iverson and 26th Streets. Present schedules provide for 20 trips daily from the suburban community to the city and 17 from the central terminal to Hillcrest Heights. Normal running time between terminals is 35 minutes. During peak travel hours, this is increased to between 40 and 45 minutes. (See Table I, Page 11 for schedule.)
Important in creating community stability and values, and of great interest to the prospective home purchaser are schools and recreational facilities. Both of these have been planned for in the Hillcrest Heights area. An 18.6 acre tract just west of Twenty-third Parkway and about two blocks south of Iverson Street has been acquired by the Prince George's County Board of Education for an elementary-junior high school. Work on the structure will begin this year and it is expected that the school will be completed by the spring of 1952. Development will include recreational facilities and off-street parking spaces. Reservation for a second elementary school a few blocks north of the center is also anticipated.
A site for a Catholic church and parochial school has been located on a large tract of land about two blocks northwest of the center on the "Carrigan" tract.
The proposed Oxon Run Parkway, one of the stream valley regional parks of the Washington metropolitan area is about 0.7 miles northwest of the proposed shopping center.
Another significant factor in community growth and in its economic stability is the employment opportunity provided in the area. Hillcrest Heights is particularly fortunate in this respect. Important Federal centers are within a few miles. The Suitland Office Building houses the Census Bureau, the Naval Hydrographic Office, and others and is about two and one half miles distant. Camp Andrews, (Military Air Transport Service Base), is about four and one half miles to the east. Other employment centers, including the Naval Air Station, Bolling Field, and the Naval Research Laboratory, are in the nearby Anacostia district. In addition, the large concentration of Federal offices and the central business district of Washington are only 15 minutes distant by automobile and 35 minutes by bus.
The foregoing items provide a general indication of the type and character of residents and homes found in the Hillcrest Heights area. These have an important bearing on the anticipated retail sales volume and on the trading area.
The past decade has witnessed a phenomenal population growth in the Washington Metropolitan Area (see Table II, Page 13). The characteristic outward movement of population to suburban areas found in all metropolitan sections of the country is markedly evident in the National Capital region.
Table III, Page 14, which shows the percentage distribution of population within the city and outside, emphasizes the increasing importance of the suburban portions of the area.
Interesting directional changes in the pattern of growth have occured during the past ten years. Whereas, in previous decades, the outward movement toward Maryland areas had been confined almost entirely in a north, northwesterly and easterly direction, the period from 1940-50 found the Anacostia portion of the District of Columbia and adjacent areas in Maryland to the southeast in strong favor.
Several factors have influenced this trend. They are:
At the end of World War II about twenty families lived in the Colebrook subdivision which then extended a few hundred feet southwesterly from Branch Avenue. About two dozen more families lived in the Silver Hill Park subdivision. The total number of persons was about 160.
In the six years since VJ Day the community of Hillcrest Heights has been developed and, with adjoining subdivisions, has a population of about 3100 persons making up 915 families. Of this number 630 families occupy the Hillcrest Heights Apartments located just northeast of the site of the proposed shopping center. (see Plate B and Plate C, Pages 17, 19). Two hundred and eighty-five families, the remainder of the present population, live in the one family detached residences in the Hillcrest Heights, Colebrook, Hillcrest Gardens, Fleischmann's and Silver Hill Park subdivisions.
A survey of families in the Hillcrest Heights area reveals that the average size of a family is 3.4 persons which corresponds to the average for Metropolitan Washington. All families are of the white race. Children average 1.3 per family with 68% under six years of age reflecting the high birth rate during the past several years. Recent census figures indicate that the increase in the age group under 5 years in the decade 1940-50 was 127% compared with 51% for the total population in the Metropolitan Area. (citation: "Characteristics of the Population of the Washington, D. C., Standard Metropolitan Area, April l, 1950" Preliminary report PC 5 No. 53 April 29, 1951, Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. )
The average number of workers per family in the Hillcrest Heights area was found to be 1.33, with 70% having one employed person.
Under construction or planned for completion by the spring of 1952 are nearly 600 dwellings in and adjacent to Hillcrest Heights. About 418 will be within the present trading area (see Map No. 2, Page 9) of the proposed shopping center. Over half this number are either under construction or committed under VA or pre-regulation X financing.
Thus, within a year the population will have increased to about 4532 persons or 1333 families. [Assuming 3.4 persons per family.]
In the section of this report entitled "Ultimate Trading Area" (Page 40) it is indicated that the establishment of competing shopping centers with facilities equalling those of the Hillcrest Heights center will reduce the effective area of influence of the latter.
The completion of Maryland Route 5 as a limited access highway will also contribute to this reduction since it will discourage travel across the highway from areas to the northeast.
Compensation for this loss in area will take place well in advance of any shrinkage in trading area because of further population increases.
International uncertainties make forecasting difficult during the period ahead and no attempt has been made to estimate yearly growth beyond 1952.
Should the world situation become more critical, serious shortages in materials and manpower for the housing industry will result, and financing will suffer because of credit restrictions.
Despite this somewhat gloomy picture it is reasonable to assume that the Washington area will need housing for the additional population that comes during periods of national emergency.
Suburban areas close to express highways should be advantageously situated if priorities for defense housing are invoked. Communities such as Hillcrest Heights are readily accessible not only to existing Federal centers but convenient in point of time to possible dispersed sites, since these, too, will be near existing express highways or their extensions.
It is probable, therefore, that the Hillcrest Heights area may approach maturity within five years, or by 1957+.
Estimates of the potential population in the ultimate trading area have been made by applying density factors obtained from areas of comparable development.
To allow reasonably for non-development in certain areas it has been assumed that about 20% of the lots may remain unoccupied for a considerable period of time, after the large scale developers have finished their operations. [Estimate based upon a study entitled "Population Analysis of Small Areas", May 1950. Part of Business Information Service, Department of Commerce.]
Using the facts at hand, and based upon the foregoing assumptions, it is estimated that the potential population in the ultimate trading area is about 10,330 persons or 3039 families. If 20% of the presently undeveloped lots and acreage remains vacant the trading area will have a population of about 8800 persons making up 2589 families by 1957+. (See Table IV, Page 22)
